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Helena, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Helena MT
National Weather Service Forecast for: Helena MT
Issued by: National Weather Service Great Falls, MT
Updated: 2:11 am MDT Jul 26, 2025
 
Today

Today: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm.  Increasing clouds, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Sunny then
Chance
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers between 9pm and 10pm.  Widespread haze between 1am and 2am. Areas of smoke after 2am. Cloudy, then gradual clearing toward daybreak, with a low around 57. West southwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm  after midnight.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms then
Haze
Sunday

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Widespread haze between 7am and 11am. Areas of smoke before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Haze then
Chance
T-storms
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Monday

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Sunny then
Chance
Showers
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Cloudy
Tuesday

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. North northeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Cloudy
Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
Partly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
Hi 87 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 56 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 83 °F Lo 58 °F Hi 84 °F

 

Today
 
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers between 9pm and 10pm. Widespread haze between 1am and 2am. Areas of smoke after 2am. Cloudy, then gradual clearing toward daybreak, with a low around 57. West southwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Widespread haze between 7am and 11am. Areas of smoke before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Monday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Tuesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. North northeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
Thursday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Friday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Helena MT.

Weather Forecast Discussion
862
FXUS65 KTFX 261102
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
502 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues through
   next week.

 - A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop each afternoon
   this weekend with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard in
   addition to lightning.

 - Temperatures fluctuate close to seasonable norms for late July
   through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 309 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

The area remains under a general southwest flow aloft between a
large scale ridge that gradually migrates from the southeast US
westward across the US Plains through next week, while an upper
level trough remains anchored along the West coast. Subtle
disturbances ejecting out of the western trough and available
mid-level moisture and instability will lead to daily shower and
thunderstorm development through much of the week ahead under this
relatively persistent pattern.

Temperatures remain fairly warm today (mid-upper 80s) with a dry
and deeply mixed boundary layer (particularly across SW MT)
supporting initially high-based convection with an environment
favorable for strong wind gusts, even as storms track northward
and encounter somewhat better low level moisture across north-
central MT this evening. Higher low-level moisture (50F+
dewpoints) and slightly better wind shear (30-40kts) across
north-central MT may allow for some more organized/intense storms
early this evening with locally heavy downpours and small hail in
addition to the larger wind threat, though freezing levels around
14kft will likely keep the threat for larger hail limited.

While confidence in particular details decreases Sunday through
next week, the overall mid-upper level setup changes little. Low
level east to southeast flow does look to bring additional low-
level moisture into the area next week, supporting an increased
chance for localized heavier precipitation beneath storms as the
week progresses. Hoenisch

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Thunderstorms today should initiate early this afternoon across
the SW MT mountains and track northeast in the southwesterly
steering flow with the greatest coverage across central MT early
this evening (5pm-9pm). Hi-resolution model ensembles support a
40-60% chance of wind gusts in excess of 40 mph associated with
storms across central MT late this afternoon/evening with 10-20%
risk of gusts in excess of 55 mph centered on an area from the Big
Belt Mtns northeast across the Little Belts and the Judith Basin
area. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
26/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail across the region to start the TAF period
with some low clouds banked against the Rocky Mtn Front early
this morning, but otherwise just some scattered mid-high level
clouds. Showers and thunderstorms develop across southwest MT
early afternoon and track across central and north-central MT late
this afternoon and evening. In addition to gusty/erratic winds
and lightning, some cells across central/N-central MT could
include brief heavier precipitation with local terrain obscuration
and isolated small hail. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  56  84  56 /  30  30  10  20
CTB  80  50  77  52 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  88  55  86  56 /  50  40  30  30
BZN  89  51  88  51 /  40  10  20  20
WYS  80  39  80  39 /  10  10  10   0
DLN  84  47  84  48 /  40  10  30  10
HVR  88  55  85  56 /  10  20   0  30
LWT  85  53  81  53 /  40  50  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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